Slovenia Nurses

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+25%Beats the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 5 won)

Direction

88%No clear edge over a coin flip (15 of 17 calls right in 6 tests)

Turning points

n/aToo few tests (3 turns, 8 needed) (3 turns in 6 tests, 4 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

25% lowerError ratio 0.75; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

5 / 6Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2007-12-01 to 2024-12-013 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2024-12-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.