Corn/Mais Futures
Agriculture · Monthly series · CM-EMA1.EURONEXT
Latest, October 2026
258.75 EUR/TNE
-2.1% from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 236.84 EUR/TNE, with an 80% interval of 133.91 EUR/TNE to 344.28 EUR/TNE.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 256.10 EUR/TNE | 240.75 EUR/TNE | 271.83 EUR/TNE |
| December 2026 | 255.03 EUR/TNE | 229.15 EUR/TNE | 281.98 EUR/TNE |
| January 2027 | 254.30 EUR/TNE | 202.61 EUR/TNE | 308.31 EUR/TNE |
| February 2027 | 253.34 EUR/TNE | 206.92 EUR/TNE | 298.51 EUR/TNE |
| March 2027 | 250.92 EUR/TNE | 214.22 EUR/TNE | 286.38 EUR/TNE |
| April 2027 | 248.64 EUR/TNE | 196.30 EUR/TNE | 300.25 EUR/TNE |
| May 2027 | 247.20 EUR/TNE | 159.87 EUR/TNE | 331.74 EUR/TNE |
| June 2027 | 244.85 EUR/TNE | 181.20 EUR/TNE | 308.03 EUR/TNE |
| July 2027 | 242.84 EUR/TNE | 174.26 EUR/TNE | 311.62 EUR/TNE |
| August 2027 | 239.99 EUR/TNE | 146.00 EUR/TNE | 335.55 EUR/TNE |
| September 2027 | 238.31 EUR/TNE | 144.66 EUR/TNE | 333.77 EUR/TNE |
| October 2027 | 236.84 EUR/TNE | 133.91 EUR/TNE | 344.28 EUR/TNE |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: State-space model, 167M (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- 0%Matches the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 2 won)
- Direction
- 47%No clear edge over a coin flip (34 of 72 calls right in 6 tests)
- Turning points
- 5 of 23Anticipated some turns (23 turns in 6 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- About the sameError ratio 1.00; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 2 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
5 of 5 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.
Models tested
State-space model, 167M scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.89) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.00). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.
4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Statistical, Machine learning, Neural network.
| Model | Class and compute | Older tests | Recent tests | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State-space model, 167M (foundation model) | Foundation model · CPU | 0.89 | 1.00 | Serving |
| Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model) | Foundation model · CPU | 0.96 | 0.99 | Tested |
| Naive forecast (last value held) | Benchmark · CPU | 1.00 | 1.00 | Benchmark |
| Exponential smoothing (statistical) | Statistical · CPU | 1.00 | 1.00 | Tested |
| Gradient-boosted trees (machine learning) | Machine learning · CPU | 1.34 | 0.71 | Tested |
| Hierarchical neural network (neural network) | Neural network · CPU | 3.04 | 1.20 | Tested |
Reading
It is above 87% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 258.75 EUR/TNE |
| September 2026 | 264.25 EUR/TNE |
| August 2026 | 269.75 EUR/TNE |
| July 2026 | 242.75 EUR/TNE |
| June 2026 | 236.00 EUR/TNE |
| May 2026 | 227.00 EUR/TNE |
| April 2026 | 223.50 EUR/TNE |
| March 2026 | 209.50 EUR/TNE |
| February 2026 | 197.25 EUR/TNE |
| January 2026 | 193.25 EUR/TNE |
| December 2025 | 188.25 EUR/TNE |
| November 2025 | 187.50 EUR/TNE |
| October 2025 | 187.75 EUR/TNE |
| September 2025 | 181.25 EUR/TNE |
| August 2025 | 189.00 EUR/TNE |
| July 2025 | 194.75 EUR/TNE |
| June 2025 | 195.25 EUR/TNE |
| May 2025 | 193.75 EUR/TNE |
| April 2025 | 199.50 EUR/TNE |
| March 2025 | 211.75 EUR/TNE |
| February 2025 | 217.25 EUR/TNE |
| January 2025 | 215.50 EUR/TNE |
| December 2024 | 209.75 EUR/TNE |
| November 2024 | 203.75 EUR/TNE |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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