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Chicago SRW Wheat Futures

Agriculture · Monthly series · CBOT:ZW1!

Latest, October 2026

603.50 USX/BUA

-10.7% from September 2026

Open interactive chartChicago SRW Wheat Futures in the terminal

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 600.50 USX/BUA, with an 80% interval of 475.18 USX/BUA to 808.63 USX/BUA.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 2026605.05 USX/BUA561.71 USX/BUA658.70 USX/BUA
December 2026605.02 USX/BUA528.49 USX/BUA708.43 USX/BUA
January 2027603.11 USX/BUA544.90 USX/BUA683.62 USX/BUA
February 2027600.65 USX/BUA503.97 USX/BUA739.70 USX/BUA
March 2027598.87 USX/BUA528.97 USX/BUA701.84 USX/BUA
April 2027597.92 USX/BUA470.79 USX/BUA791.31 USX/BUA
May 2027597.33 USX/BUA504.09 USX/BUA740.44 USX/BUA
June 2027597.77 USX/BUA482.85 USX/BUA776.81 USX/BUA
July 2027598.85 USX/BUA494.87 USX/BUA761.03 USX/BUA
August 2027599.79 USX/BUA516.22 USX/BUA733.22 USX/BUA
September 2027600.43 USX/BUA458.24 USX/BUA830.91 USX/BUA
October 2027600.50 USX/BUA475.18 USX/BUA808.63 USX/BUA

Model: Timestral (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-04.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Timestral (foundation model)

Error vs baseline
1% higherError ratio 1.01; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
2 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
Test period
2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

4 of 4 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

Timestral scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.98) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.01). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Statistical, Machine learning, Neural network.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass / libraryOlder testsRecent testsRole
Timestral (foundation model)Foundation model · Timestral · GPU0.981.01Serving
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
AutoETS (statistical)Statistical · StatsForecast · CPU1.000.97Tested
CatBoost (machine learning)Machine learning · MLForecast · CPU1.301.05Tested
N-HiTS (neural network)Neural network · NeuralForecast · CPU1.310.92Tested

Reading

It is above 67% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 2026603.50 USX/BUA
September 2026675.75 USX/BUA
August 2026774.00 USX/BUA
July 2026639.25 USX/BUA
June 2026589.25 USX/BUA
May 2026610.50 USX/BUA
April 2026636.75 USX/BUA
March 2026616.25 USX/BUA
February 2026591.50 USX/BUA
January 2026538.00 USX/BUA
December 2025507.00 USX/BUA
November 2025538.50 USX/BUA
October 2025534.00 USX/BUA
September 2025508.00 USX/BUA
August 2025534.25 USX/BUA
July 2025523.25 USX/BUA
June 2025538.25 USX/BUA
May 2025534.00 USX/BUA
April 2025530.75 USX/BUA
March 2025537.00 USX/BUA
February 2025555.75 USX/BUA
January 2025559.50 USX/BUA
December 2024551.50 USX/BUA
November 2024548.00 USX/BUA

Source

Data: CBOT feed via TradingView.

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