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Gold / U.S. Dollar

Precious metals · Monthly series · CM-XAUUSD.FOREXCOM

Latest, October 2026

3,875.65 USD (exchange quote)

-6.8% from September 2026

Open interactive chartGold / U.S. Dollar in the app

542032851150November 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 4,219.97 USD (exchange quote), with an 80% interval of 3,019.73 USD (exchange quote) to 5,420.20 USD (exchange quote).

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 20263,931.65 USD (exchange quote)3,643.10 USD (exchange quote)4,220.19 USD (exchange quote)
December 20263,957.86 USD (exchange quote)3,554.41 USD (exchange quote)4,361.31 USD (exchange quote)
January 20273,984.07 USD (exchange quote)3,580.79 USD (exchange quote)4,387.34 USD (exchange quote)
February 20274,010.28 USD (exchange quote)3,602.85 USD (exchange quote)4,417.71 USD (exchange quote)
March 20274,036.49 USD (exchange quote)3,349.00 USD (exchange quote)4,723.98 USD (exchange quote)
April 20274,062.70 USD (exchange quote)3,218.97 USD (exchange quote)4,906.43 USD (exchange quote)
May 20274,088.91 USD (exchange quote)3,442.80 USD (exchange quote)4,735.02 USD (exchange quote)
June 20274,115.12 USD (exchange quote)2,997.22 USD (exchange quote)5,233.03 USD (exchange quote)
July 20274,141.33 USD (exchange quote)3,148.25 USD (exchange quote)5,134.42 USD (exchange quote)
August 20274,167.54 USD (exchange quote)3,039.33 USD (exchange quote)5,295.76 USD (exchange quote)
September 20274,193.76 USD (exchange quote)3,139.34 USD (exchange quote)5,248.17 USD (exchange quote)
October 20274,219.97 USD (exchange quote)3,019.73 USD (exchange quote)5,420.20 USD (exchange quote)

Model: Exponential smoothing (statistical). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Exponential smoothing (statistical)

Accuracy vs naive
+6%Matches the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 4 won)
Direction
72%No clear edge over a coin flip (52 of 72 calls right in 6 tests)
Turning points
0 of 25Anticipated no turn, as the no-change baseline does (25 turns in 6 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
6% lowerError ratio 0.94; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
4 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
Test period
2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

5 of 5 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

Exponential smoothing scored lowest on the 6 older tests (1.00) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (0.94). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Statistical, Foundation model, Machine learning, Neural network.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass and computeOlder testsRecent testsRole
Exponential smoothing (statistical)Statistical · CPU1.000.94Serving
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
State-space model, 167M (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU1.060.88Tested
Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU1.101.03Tested
Gradient-boosted trees (machine learning)Machine learning · CPU1.380.96Tested
Hierarchical neural network (neural network)Neural network · CPU1.771.19Tested

Uses ci-proto, released by Continuous Intelligence. Continuous Intelligence does not endorse or approve this product or service. (ci-proto is shown as State-space model, 167M.)

Reading

It is above 90% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 20263,875.65 USD (exchange quote)
September 20264,157.68 USD (exchange quote)
August 20264,448.10 USD (exchange quote)
July 20264,043.21 USD (exchange quote)
June 20264,007.41 USD (exchange quote)
May 20264,540.17 USD (exchange quote)
April 20264,622.43 USD (exchange quote)
March 20264,668.90 USD (exchange quote)
February 20265,279.20 USD (exchange quote)
January 20264,894.33 USD (exchange quote)
December 20254,319.38 USD (exchange quote)
November 20254,217.99 USD (exchange quote)
October 20254,002.40 USD (exchange quote)
September 20253,859.01 USD (exchange quote)
August 20253,448.26 USD (exchange quote)
July 20253,289.84 USD (exchange quote)
June 20253,302.96 USD (exchange quote)
May 20253,289.24 USD (exchange quote)
April 20253,288.45 USD (exchange quote)
March 20253,123.77 USD (exchange quote)
February 20252,857.86 USD (exchange quote)
January 20252,798.82 USD (exchange quote)
December 20242,624.51 USD (exchange quote)
November 20242,650.59 USD (exchange quote)

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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