AgenticInvestor

WTI Oil Future

Energy · Monthly series · CM-USOIL.FX

Latest, October 2026

102.88 USD (exchange quote)

+13.9% from September 2026

Open interactive chartWTI Oil Future in the app

172.695.8219.05November 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 107.67 USD (exchange quote), with an 80% interval of 55.33 USD (exchange quote) to 160.01 USD (exchange quote).

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 2026103.28 USD (exchange quote)83.90 USD (exchange quote)122.66 USD (exchange quote)
December 2026103.68 USD (exchange quote)66.13 USD (exchange quote)141.22 USD (exchange quote)
January 2027104.08 USD (exchange quote)72.30 USD (exchange quote)135.86 USD (exchange quote)
February 2027104.48 USD (exchange quote)68.10 USD (exchange quote)140.86 USD (exchange quote)
March 2027104.88 USD (exchange quote)53.17 USD (exchange quote)156.58 USD (exchange quote)
April 2027105.28 USD (exchange quote)47.84 USD (exchange quote)162.71 USD (exchange quote)
May 2027105.67 USD (exchange quote)38.76 USD (exchange quote)172.59 USD (exchange quote)
June 2027106.07 USD (exchange quote)60.71 USD (exchange quote)151.44 USD (exchange quote)
July 2027106.47 USD (exchange quote)71.91 USD (exchange quote)141.03 USD (exchange quote)
August 2027106.87 USD (exchange quote)64.08 USD (exchange quote)149.67 USD (exchange quote)
September 2027107.27 USD (exchange quote)54.02 USD (exchange quote)160.52 USD (exchange quote)
October 2027107.67 USD (exchange quote)55.33 USD (exchange quote)160.01 USD (exchange quote)

Model: Exponential smoothing (statistical). Forecast generated 2026-11-13.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Exponential smoothing (statistical)

Accuracy vs naive
0%Matches the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 3 won)
Direction
53%No clear edge over a coin flip (38 of 72 calls right in 6 tests)
Turning points
0 of 25Anticipated no turn, as the no-change baseline does (25 turns in 6 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
About the sameError ratio 1.00; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
3 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
Test period
2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
77%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

5 of 5 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

Exponential smoothing scored lowest on the 6 older tests (1.00) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.00). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Statistical, Foundation model, Machine learning, Neural network.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass and computeOlder testsRecent testsRole
AutoETS (statistical)Statistical · CPU1.001.00Serving
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
Timestral (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU1.000.99Tested
ci-proto (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU1.020.93Tested
CatBoost (machine learning)Machine learning · CPU1.131.07Tested
N-HiTS (neural network)Neural network · CPU1.991.08Tested

Uses ci-proto, released by Continuous Intelligence. Continuous Intelligence does not endorse or approve this product or service. (ci-proto is shown as State-space model, 167M.)

Reading

It is above 97% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 2026102.88 USD (exchange quote)
September 202690.34 USD (exchange quote)
August 202686.28 USD (exchange quote)
July 202684.59 USD (exchange quote)
June 202670.03 USD (exchange quote)
May 202687.68 USD (exchange quote)
April 2026105.40 USD (exchange quote)
March 2026101.51 USD (exchange quote)
February 202667.37 USD (exchange quote)
January 202665.74 USD (exchange quote)
December 202557.58 USD (exchange quote)
November 202558.47 USD (exchange quote)
October 202560.87 USD (exchange quote)
September 202562.41 USD (exchange quote)
August 202563.97 USD (exchange quote)
July 202569.35 USD (exchange quote)
June 202564.95 USD (exchange quote)
May 202560.77 USD (exchange quote)
April 202558.20 USD (exchange quote)
March 202571.39 USD (exchange quote)
February 202569.94 USD (exchange quote)
January 202573.75 USD (exchange quote)
December 202471.90 USD (exchange quote)
November 202468.13 USD (exchange quote)

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

More from Agentic Investor

Also stored for Energy