AgenticInvestor

Brent Crude Futures

Energy · Monthly series · ICEEUR:BRN1!

Latest, October 2026

113.43 USD/BLL

+15.7% from September 2026

Open interactive chartBrent Crude Futures in the terminal

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 109.50 USD/BLL, with an 80% interval of 63.31 USD/BLL to 155.68 USD/BLL.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 2026113.30 USD/BLL101.03 USD/BLL125.58 USD/BLL
December 2026113.31 USD/BLL95.55 USD/BLL131.08 USD/BLL
January 2027112.46 USD/BLL91.43 USD/BLL133.49 USD/BLL
February 2027114.64 USD/BLL91.10 USD/BLL138.17 USD/BLL
March 2027115.41 USD/BLL81.30 USD/BLL149.52 USD/BLL
April 2027113.10 USD/BLL81.89 USD/BLL144.31 USD/BLL
May 2027113.28 USD/BLL72.17 USD/BLL154.39 USD/BLL
June 2027115.51 USD/BLL82.67 USD/BLL148.35 USD/BLL
July 2027116.27 USD/BLL77.07 USD/BLL155.48 USD/BLL
August 2027115.08 USD/BLL75.46 USD/BLL154.70 USD/BLL
September 2027111.48 USD/BLL68.03 USD/BLL154.93 USD/BLL
October 2027109.50 USD/BLL63.31 USD/BLL155.68 USD/BLL

Model: CatBoost (machine learning). Forecast generated 2026-11-04.

AI confidence

Weak evidence

The serving forecast made larger errors than the no-change baseline in these tests.

Model: CatBoost (machine learning)

Error vs baseline
39% higherError ratio 1.39; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
0 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
Test period
2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

4 of 4 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

CatBoost scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.92) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.39). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Machine learning, Foundation model, Statistical, Neural network.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass / libraryOlder testsRecent testsRole
CatBoost (machine learning)Machine learning · MLForecast · CPU0.921.39Serving
Timestral (foundation model)Foundation model · Timestral · GPU0.981.00Tested
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
AutoETS (statistical)Statistical · StatsForecast · CPU1.041.02Tested
N-HiTS (neural network)Neural network · NeuralForecast · CPU1.591.02Tested

Reading

It is above 99% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 2026113.43 USD/BLL
September 202698.03 USD/BLL
August 202690.49 USD/BLL
July 202687.93 USD/BLL
June 202672.95 USD/BLL
May 202691.12 USD/BLL
April 2026110.40 USD/BLL
March 2026103.97 USD/BLL
February 202672.87 USD/BLL
January 202669.32 USD/BLL
December 202560.85 USD/BLL
November 202562.38 USD/BLL
October 202564.77 USD/BLL
September 202566.03 USD/BLL
August 202567.48 USD/BLL
July 202571.70 USD/BLL
June 202566.74 USD/BLL
May 202562.78 USD/BLL
April 202561.06 USD/BLL
March 202574.77 USD/BLL
February 202572.81 USD/BLL
January 202575.67 USD/BLL
December 202474.64 USD/BLL
November 202471.84 USD/BLL

Source

Data: ICEEUR feed via TradingView.

More from Agentic Investor

Also stored for Energy