AgenticInvestor

Dutch Power Base Futures

Energy · Monthly series · CM-DPB1.ICEENDEX

Latest, October 2026

225.92 EUR/MWH

+33.7% from September 2026

Open interactive chartDutch Power Base Futures in the app

477.1249.421.63November 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 163.98 EUR/MWH, with an 80% interval of 62.73 EUR/MWH to 447.09 EUR/MWH.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 2026231.36 EUR/MWH138.63 EUR/MWH353.03 EUR/MWH
December 2026213.45 EUR/MWH116.50 EUR/MWH368.91 EUR/MWH
January 2027190.05 EUR/MWH85.34 EUR/MWH385.59 EUR/MWH
February 2027163.88 EUR/MWH79.95 EUR/MWH346.83 EUR/MWH
March 2027149.66 EUR/MWH46.05 EUR/MWH390.70 EUR/MWH
April 2027146.07 EUR/MWH65.57 EUR/MWH340.76 EUR/MWH
May 2027141.85 EUR/MWH28.17 EUR/MWH425.96 EUR/MWH
June 2027142.89 EUR/MWH54.20 EUR/MWH373.02 EUR/MWH
July 2027149.37 EUR/MWH42.75 EUR/MWH429.93 EUR/MWH
August 2027155.53 EUR/MWH55.41 EUR/MWH427.41 EUR/MWH
September 2027164.55 EUR/MWH77.86 EUR/MWH410.21 EUR/MWH
October 2027163.98 EUR/MWH62.73 EUR/MWH447.09 EUR/MWH

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+8%Matches the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 3 won)
Direction
50%No clear edge over a coin flip (36 of 72 calls right in 6 tests)
Turning points
10 of 25Anticipated some turns (25 turns in 6 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
8% lowerError ratio 0.92; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
3 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
Test period
2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
78%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

5 of 5 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

Agentic Investor TSFM scored lowest on the 4 older tests (0.78) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (0.92). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Statistical, Machine learning, Neural network.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass and computeOlder testsRecent testsRole
Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU0.780.92Serving
State-space model, 167M (foundation model)Foundation model · CPU0.791.00Tested
Exponential smoothing (statistical)Statistical · CPU0.870.98Tested
Gradient-boosted trees (machine learning)Machine learning · CPU0.961.24Tested
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
Hierarchical neural network (neural network)Neural network · CPU1.642.07Tested

Uses ci-proto, released by Continuous Intelligence. Continuous Intelligence does not endorse or approve this product or service. (ci-proto is shown as State-space model, 167M.)

Reading

It is above 92% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 2026225.92 EUR/MWH
September 2026168.99 EUR/MWH
August 2026146.63 EUR/MWH
July 2026136.35 EUR/MWH
June 2026103.17 EUR/MWH
May 2026102.81 EUR/MWH
April 202690.83 EUR/MWH
March 202690.50 EUR/MWH
February 202674.00 EUR/MWH
January 202699.17 EUR/MWH
December 202591.13 EUR/MWH
November 202596.85 EUR/MWH
October 202595.54 EUR/MWH
September 202592.51 EUR/MWH
August 202582.34 EUR/MWH
July 202588.50 EUR/MWH
June 202574.95 EUR/MWH
May 202572.39 EUR/MWH
April 202567.04 EUR/MWH
March 202563.75 EUR/MWH
February 202576.50 EUR/MWH
January 2025106.50 EUR/MWH
December 2024111.07 EUR/MWH
November 2024115.59 EUR/MWH

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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