Sugar No. 16 Futures

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

-3%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 3 won)

Direction

41%No clear edge over a coin flip (58 of 142 calls right in 12 tests)

Turning points

34 of 64Anticipated most turns (64 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

3% higherError ratio 1.03; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

3 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.