Vietnam 10Y Government Bond Yield
Money & Rates · Monthly series · VN10Y
Latest, November 2026
4.6%
-0.00pp from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for November 2027: 4.8%, with an 80% interval of 3.0% to 6.9%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2026 | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| January 2027 | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| February 2027 | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% |
| March 2027 | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% |
| April 2027 | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% |
| May 2027 | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% |
| June 2027 | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% |
| July 2027 | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% |
| August 2027 | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% |
| September 2027 | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% |
| October 2027 | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.2% |
| November 2027 | 4.8% | 3.0% | 6.9% |
AI confidence
Limited evidenceComplete backtests for this serving model and forecast horizon are not available.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
10Y yield to rise to 4.76% by Nov 2027 from 4.58% now (+0.18 pp), modest upward drift.
Trajectory: forecast 4.59%–4.76% (Dec 2026–Nov 2027) versus recent 4.52%–4.58% (May–Nov 2026), reflecting heavy 10Y issuance.
Inflation: CPI +4.57% YTD Oct 2026 keeps policy cautious, limiting downward yield moves.
Liquidity and flows: SBV net OMO withdrawal VND 74,422bn and FDI +55.4% YTD cushion market, capping sharp yield spikes.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| November 2026 | 4.6% |
| September 2026 | 4.6% |
| August 2026 | 4.6% |
| August 2026 | 4.6% |
| June 2026 | 4.5% |
| May 2026 | 4.5% |
| April 2026 | 4.5% |
| March 2026 | 4.4% |
| March 2026 | 4.4% |
| February 2026 | 4.3% |
| December 2025 | 4.2% |
| November 2025 | 4.2% |
| November 2025 | 4.0% |
| September 2025 | 4.0% |
| August 2025 | 3.8% |
| July 2025 | 3.7% |
| June 2025 | 3.4% |
| June 2025 | 3.3% |
| April 2025 | 3.2% |
| March 2025 | 3.2% |
| March 2025 | 3.1% |
| February 2025 | 3.2% |
| December 2024 | 3.1% |
| December 2024 | 3.1% |
Source
Data: TVC feed via TradingView.
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