AgenticVietnam Interbank Rate
Money & Rates · Monthly series · VNINBR
Latest, October 2026
7.6%
+0.97pp from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 7.2%, with an 80% interval of 4.8% to 10.0%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% |
| December 2026 | 7.6% | 5.7% | 9.8% |
| January 2027 | 7.4% | 5.9% | 9.3% |
| February 2027 | 7.5% | 6.0% | 9.2% |
| March 2027 | 7.4% | 5.8% | 9.3% |
| April 2027 | 7.4% | 5.7% | 9.4% |
| May 2027 | 7.3% | 5.6% | 9.2% |
| June 2027 | 7.3% | 5.2% | 9.7% |
| July 2027 | 7.2% | 5.4% | 9.4% |
| August 2027 | 7.3% | 5.5% | 9.3% |
| September 2027 | 7.1% | 5.6% | 9.0% |
| October 2027 | 7.2% | 4.8% | 10.0% |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
- Error vs baseline
- 4% lowerError ratio 0.96; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-03 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
Interbank rate forecast to decelerate to 7.18% by Oct 2027 from 7.60% in Oct 2026.
Trend: forecast slips from 7.60% (Oct 2026) to 7.18% (Oct 2027), as SBV's FX forward sales and liquidity operations ease quarter‑end tightness.
Trend: near-term 7.51%-7.62% forecasts versus 7.60% Oct 2026 reflect sticky CPI at 5.09% Oct 2026, keeping SBV cautious.
Trend: gradual decline to ~7.2% driven by easing global electronics demand but sustained FDI (Samsung $1.5bn testing plant) supports funding.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 7.6% |
| September 2026 | 6.6% |
| August 2026 | 7.1% |
| July 2026 | 7.3% |
| June 2026 | 8.0% |
| May 2026 | 7.5% |
| April 2026 | 7.1% |
| March 2026 | 8.4% |
| February 2026 | 7.3% |
| January 2026 | 7.2% |
| December 2025 | 8.4% |
| November 2025 | 6.5% |
| October 2025 | 6.2% |
| September 2025 | 5.5% |
| August 2025 | 5.6% |
| July 2025 | 5.0% |
| June 2025 | 5.2% |
| May 2025 | 4.5% |
| April 2025 | 5.4% |
| March 2025 | 5.5% |
| February 2025 | 5.5% |
| January 2025 | 5.3% |
| December 2024 | 5.7% |
| November 2024 | 5.5% |
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
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