Vietnam Foreign Exchange Reserves
Money & Rates · Monthly series · VNFER
Latest, August 2026
82.65B USD
-0.2% from July 2026
Forecast
Forecast for August 2027: 82.63B USD, with an 80% interval of 70.28B USD to 95.39B USD.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 82.31B USD | 81.00B USD | 83.61B USD |
| October 2026 | 82.26B USD | 80.48B USD | 83.96B USD |
| November 2026 | 82.13B USD | 80.58B USD | 83.64B USD |
| December 2026 | 82.23B USD | 78.06B USD | 86.44B USD |
| January 2027 | 82.31B USD | 77.06B USD | 87.56B USD |
| February 2027 | 82.34B USD | 76.67B USD | 88.17B USD |
| March 2027 | 82.50B USD | 76.51B USD | 88.57B USD |
| April 2027 | 82.50B USD | 74.02B USD | 91.29B USD |
| May 2027 | 82.53B USD | 73.12B USD | 92.26B USD |
| June 2027 | 82.58B USD | 70.26B USD | 95.30B USD |
| July 2027 | 82.55B USD | 71.38B USD | 94.00B USD |
| August 2027 | 82.63B USD | 70.28B USD | 95.39B USD |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
- Error vs baseline
- 5% lowerError ratio 0.95; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-09-01 to 2026-08-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-05 against the cached history through 2026-08-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
Reserves to stabilize near $82.13bn by Nov 2026, down from $86.32bn in June.
Forecast Nov $82.13bn versus June $86.32bn, SBV used FX swaps and planned up to $2.0bn liquidity operations.
Aug $82.65bn versus June $86.32bn shows a slight downtrend, while the PM ordered SBV to monitor the exchange rate flexibly.
Strong FDI-driven electronics exports (+26.07% H1 2026) support reserves and cushion further declines.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| August 2026 | 82.65B USD |
| July 2026 | 82.81B USD |
| June 2026 | 86.32B USD |
| May 2026 | 83.09B USD |
| April 2026 | 82.55B USD |
| March 2026 | 83.42B USD |
| February 2026 | 84.42B USD |
| January 2026 | 82.57B USD |
| December 2025 | 83.62B USD |
| November 2025 | 81.40B USD |
| October 2025 | 80.26B USD |
| September 2025 | 82.21B USD |
| August 2025 | 80.81B USD |
| July 2025 | 80.28B USD |
| June 2025 | 81.10B USD |
| May 2025 | 79.75B USD |
| April 2025 | 80.10B USD |
| March 2025 | 80.65B USD |
| February 2025 | 79.47B USD |
| January 2025 | 78.99B USD |
| December 2024 | 81.21B USD |
| November 2024 | 82.04B USD |
| October 2024 | 82.47B USD |
| September 2024 | 82.34B USD |
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
More from Agentic Investor
- Dashboard: indicator charts and available forecasts
- All indicators