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Rough Rice Futures

Agriculture · Monthly series · CBOT:ZR1!

Latest, October 2026

17.91 USD/CWA

+10.8% from September 2026

Open interactive chartRough Rice Futures in the terminal

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 17.24 USD/CWA, with an 80% interval of 12.66 USD/CWA to 22.86 USD/CWA.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202617.99 USD/CWA15.12 USD/CWA20.68 USD/CWA
December 202617.89 USD/CWA14.97 USD/CWA20.74 USD/CWA
January 202717.82 USD/CWA13.89 USD/CWA21.83 USD/CWA
February 202717.73 USD/CWA13.74 USD/CWA21.94 USD/CWA
March 202717.65 USD/CWA14.07 USD/CWA21.62 USD/CWA
April 202717.58 USD/CWA12.94 USD/CWA22.79 USD/CWA
May 202717.52 USD/CWA13.50 USD/CWA22.09 USD/CWA
June 202717.45 USD/CWA13.52 USD/CWA21.94 USD/CWA
July 202717.40 USD/CWA11.93 USD/CWA23.77 USD/CWA
August 202717.35 USD/CWA12.83 USD/CWA22.77 USD/CWA
September 202717.31 USD/CWA11.76 USD/CWA24.00 USD/CWA
October 202717.24 USD/CWA12.66 USD/CWA22.86 USD/CWA

Model: Timestral (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-04.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Timestral (foundation model)

Error vs baseline
1% lowerError ratio 0.99; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
4 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
Test period
2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

4 of 4 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.

Models tested

Timestral scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.98) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (0.99). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.

4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Statistical, Machine learning, Neural network.

Every model tested on this series.
ModelClass / libraryOlder testsRecent testsRole
Timestral (foundation model)Foundation model · Timestral · GPU0.980.99Serving
Naive forecast (last value held)Benchmark · CPU1.001.00Benchmark
AutoETS (statistical)Statistical · StatsForecast · CPU1.001.00Tested
CatBoost (machine learning)Machine learning · MLForecast · CPU1.321.09Tested
N-HiTS (neural network)Neural network · NeuralForecast · CPU1.501.00Tested

Reading

It is above 97% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202617.91 USD/CWA
September 202616.16 USD/CWA
August 202615.72 USD/CWA
July 202613.96 USD/CWA
June 202613.29 USD/CWA
May 202612.61 USD/CWA
April 202611.15 USD/CWA
March 202611.38 USD/CWA
February 202610.74 USD/CWA
January 202611.03 USD/CWA
December 20259.93 USD/CWA
November 202510.07 USD/CWA
October 202510.60 USD/CWA
September 202511.16 USD/CWA
August 202512.17 USD/CWA
July 202512.28 USD/CWA
June 202513.33 USD/CWA
May 202513.49 USD/CWA
April 202513.21 USD/CWA
March 202513.57 USD/CWA
February 202513.51 USD/CWA
January 202513.85 USD/CWA
December 202414.10 USD/CWA
November 202415.21 USD/CWA

Source

Data: CBOT feed via TradingView.

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