Coffee C Futures
Agriculture · Monthly series · ICEUS:KC1!
Latest, October 2026
287.20 USX/LBR
-1.2% from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 248.42 USX/LBR, with an 80% interval of 161.79 USX/LBR to 381.88 USX/LBR.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 282.12 USX/LBR | 252.64 USX/LBR | 318.15 USX/LBR |
| December 2026 | 278.28 USX/LBR | 227.34 USX/LBR | 343.94 USX/LBR |
| January 2027 | 274.62 USX/LBR | 225.88 USX/LBR | 338.83 USX/LBR |
| February 2027 | 270.97 USX/LBR | 206.96 USX/LBR | 358.24 USX/LBR |
| March 2027 | 267.47 USX/LBR | 192.96 USX/LBR | 370.78 USX/LBR |
| April 2027 | 264.69 USX/LBR | 168.16 USX/LBR | 400.44 USX/LBR |
| May 2027 | 261.74 USX/LBR | 173.31 USX/LBR | 385.63 USX/LBR |
| June 2027 | 258.63 USX/LBR | 174.05 USX/LBR | 381.28 USX/LBR |
| July 2027 | 256.19 USX/LBR | 189.64 USX/LBR | 352.96 USX/LBR |
| August 2027 | 253.25 USX/LBR | 155.43 USX/LBR | 399.30 USX/LBR |
| September 2027 | 251.07 USX/LBR | 147.77 USX/LBR | 406.23 USX/LBR |
| October 2027 | 248.42 USX/LBR | 161.79 USX/LBR | 381.88 USX/LBR |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Timestral (foundation model)
- Error vs baseline
- 1% higherError ratio 1.01; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 3 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-04 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
4 of 4 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.
Models tested
Timestral scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.82) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.01). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.
4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Machine learning, Neural network, Statistical.
| Model | Class / library | Older tests | Recent tests | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timestral (foundation model) | Foundation model · Timestral · GPU | 0.82 | 1.01 | Serving |
| Naive forecast (last value held) | Benchmark · CPU | 1.00 | 1.00 | Benchmark |
| CatBoost (machine learning) | Machine learning · MLForecast · CPU | 1.00 | 1.07 | Tested |
| N-HiTS (neural network) | Neural network · NeuralForecast · CPU | 1.08 | 0.91 | Tested |
| AutoETS (statistical) | Statistical · StatsForecast · CPU | 1.16 | 0.96 | Tested |
Reading
It is above 83% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 287.20 USX/LBR |
| September 2026 | 290.70 USX/LBR |
| August 2026 | 311.50 USX/LBR |
| July 2026 | 332.10 USX/LBR |
| June 2026 | 296.45 USX/LBR |
| May 2026 | 265.60 USX/LBR |
| April 2026 | 285.55 USX/LBR |
| March 2026 | 298.35 USX/LBR |
| February 2026 | 280.75 USX/LBR |
| January 2026 | 332.25 USX/LBR |
| December 2025 | 348.75 USX/LBR |
| November 2025 | 381.20 USX/LBR |
| October 2025 | 392.05 USX/LBR |
| September 2025 | 374.85 USX/LBR |
| August 2025 | 386.10 USX/LBR |
| July 2025 | 295.80 USX/LBR |
| June 2025 | 300.10 USX/LBR |
| May 2025 | 342.45 USX/LBR |
| April 2025 | 400.75 USX/LBR |
| March 2025 | 379.75 USX/LBR |
| February 2025 | 373.05 USX/LBR |
| January 2025 | 377.85 USX/LBR |
| December 2024 | 319.75 USX/LBR |
| November 2024 | 318.05 USX/LBR |
Source
Data: ICEUS feed via TradingView.
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