AgenticRobusta Coffee Futures
Agriculture · Monthly series · ICEEUR:RC1!
Latest, October 2026
3,204.00 USD (exchange quote)
-7.0% from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 3,114.94 USD (exchange quote), with an 80% interval of 2,037.86 USD (exchange quote) to 4,821.71 USD (exchange quote).
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 3,196.04 USD (exchange quote) | 2,811.87 USD (exchange quote) | 3,644.04 USD (exchange quote) |
| December 2026 | 3,191.20 USD (exchange quote) | 2,809.67 USD (exchange quote) | 3,677.74 USD (exchange quote) |
| January 2027 | 3,185.42 USD (exchange quote) | 2,818.37 USD (exchange quote) | 3,656.60 USD (exchange quote) |
| February 2027 | 3,174.56 USD (exchange quote) | 2,637.31 USD (exchange quote) | 3,897.68 USD (exchange quote) |
| March 2027 | 3,164.61 USD (exchange quote) | 2,519.89 USD (exchange quote) | 4,046.21 USD (exchange quote) |
| April 2027 | 3,159.21 USD (exchange quote) | 2,530.44 USD (exchange quote) | 4,046.44 USD (exchange quote) |
| May 2027 | 3,151.82 USD (exchange quote) | 2,443.27 USD (exchange quote) | 4,157.63 USD (exchange quote) |
| June 2027 | 3,143.87 USD (exchange quote) | 2,469.91 USD (exchange quote) | 4,134.12 USD (exchange quote) |
| July 2027 | 3,138.78 USD (exchange quote) | 2,314.46 USD (exchange quote) | 4,367.44 USD (exchange quote) |
| August 2027 | 3,128.89 USD (exchange quote) | 2,137.80 USD (exchange quote) | 4,653.42 USD (exchange quote) |
| September 2027 | 3,127.20 USD (exchange quote) | 2,032.18 USD (exchange quote) | 4,810.70 USD (exchange quote) |
| October 2027 | 3,114.94 USD (exchange quote) | 2,037.86 USD (exchange quote) | 4,821.71 USD (exchange quote) |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Timestral (foundation model)
- Error vs baseline
- 1% higherError ratio 1.01; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 2 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-04 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
4 of 4 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.
Models tested
Timestral scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.96) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.01). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.
4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Statistical, Machine learning, Neural network.
| Model | Class / library | Older tests | Recent tests | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timestral (foundation model) | Foundation model · Timestral · GPU | 0.96 | 1.01 | Serving |
| AutoETS (statistical) | Statistical · StatsForecast · CPU | 1.00 | 1.00 | Tested |
| Naive forecast (last value held) | Benchmark · CPU | 1.00 | 1.00 | Benchmark |
| CatBoost (machine learning) | Machine learning · MLForecast · CPU | 1.07 | 0.91 | Tested |
| N-HiTS (neural network) | Neural network · NeuralForecast · CPU | 1.71 | 1.05 | Tested |
Reading
It is above 73% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 3,204.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| September 2026 | 3,445.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| August 2026 | 3,529.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| July 2026 | 3,782.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| June 2026 | 3,658.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| May 2026 | 3,476.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| April 2026 | 3,361.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| March 2026 | 3,493.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| February 2026 | 3,624.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| January 2026 | 4,113.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| December 2025 | 3,949.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| November 2025 | 4,565.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| October 2025 | 4,540.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| September 2025 | 4,200.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| August 2025 | 4,815.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| July 2025 | 3,401.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| June 2025 | 3,620.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| May 2025 | 4,510.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| April 2025 | 5,369.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| March 2025 | 5,269.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| February 2025 | 5,330.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| January 2025 | 5,718.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| December 2024 | 4,875.00 USD (exchange quote) |
| November 2024 | 5,409.00 USD (exchange quote) |
Source
Data: ICEEUR feed via TradingView.
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