AgenticVietnam Electricity Production YoY YTD
Output & Demand · Monthly series · VNELP
Latest, October 2026
2.8%
+0.85pp from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 6.1%, with an 80% interval of -0.9% to 14.1%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| December 2026 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% |
| January 2027 | 4.9% | -4.6% | 19.4% |
| February 2027 | 7.8% | 0.9% | 16.0% |
| March 2027 | 6.8% | 1.5% | 13.7% |
| April 2027 | 6.2% | -1.7% | 15.4% |
| May 2027 | 6.0% | -2.4% | 14.9% |
| June 2027 | 6.1% | -2.2% | 15.0% |
| July 2027 | 6.5% | -1.1% | 14.5% |
| August 2027 | 6.8% | -1.3% | 15.7% |
| September 2027 | 7.2% | 0.5% | 14.5% |
| October 2027 | 6.1% | -0.9% | 14.1% |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
- Error vs baseline
- 16% lowerError ratio 0.84; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-03 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
Electricity production to rise to +7.85% YoY YTD by Feb 2027 from +2.80% in Oct 2026, signaling acceleration.
Trajectory: +2.80% Oct 2026 → +7.85% Feb 2027; driven by factory‑scale FDI (Samsung +$4.0bn) and semiconductor demand.
Trajectory: monthly forecasts average +6%–+7% in 2027 versus +2.8% Oct 2026; supported by LNG imports and Quang Trach/thermal commissioning.
Trajectory: near‑term jump also reflects rooftop‑solar policy and higher industrial grid utilization boosting supply and demand.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 2.8% |
| September 2026 | 2.0% |
| August 2026 | 2.4% |
| July 2026 | 2.7% |
| June 2026 | 2.5% |
| May 2026 | 0.8% |
| April 2026 | -0.6% |
| March 2026 | -2.5% |
| February 2026 | -0.7% |
| January 2026 | 13.4% |
| December 2025 | 11.4% |
| November 2025 | 10.9% |
| October 2025 | 11.2% |
| September 2025 | 12.0% |
| August 2025 | 11.4% |
| July 2025 | 11.2% |
| June 2025 | 11.0% |
| May 2025 | 11.4% |
| April 2025 | 11.9% |
| March 2025 | 13.7% |
| February 2025 | 12.0% |
| January 2025 | 1.4% |
| December 2024 | 8.3% |
| November 2024 | 8.4% |
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
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