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Vietnam Manufacturing Production YoY YTD

Output & Demand · Monthly series · VNMPRYY

Latest, October 2026

12.7%

+0.33pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartManufacturing Production YoY YTD in the terminal

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 11.3%, with an 80% interval of 4.5% to 18.7%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202612.9%12.0%13.6%
December 202613.0%11.2%14.6%
January 202711.0%0.7%17.9%
February 202712.6%-6.2%27.4%
March 202712.6%3.9%22.2%
April 202712.7%3.6%24.0%
May 202712.4%3.1%22.9%
June 202711.9%4.4%20.5%
July 202712.3%4.7%21.8%
August 202711.9%5.0%20.1%
September 202712.0%5.9%19.3%
October 202711.3%4.5%18.7%

Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models). Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

AI confidence

Limited evidence

Complete backtests for this serving model and forecast horizon are not available.

Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Commentary

Manufacturing to rise to 13.04% YoY in Dec 2026, up from 12.71% in Oct, extending expansion.

Up from 12.71% (Oct) to 13.04% (Dec forecast), driven by Samsung's >$4.0bn Vietnam semiconductor/manufacturing investment.

Despite a Jan dip to 10.97% forecast, electronics exports surged to US$175.4bn (9M2026), lifting component demand.

Plateau near ~12% through 2027 forecast, supported by Vietnam's Investment Law 2025 incentives and hi‑tech park subsidies.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202612.7%
September 202612.4%
August 202611.8%
July 202611.5%
June 202610.9%
May 202610.5%
April 202610.5%
March 202610.9%
February 202612.4%
January 202623.6%
December 202510.6%
November 202510.5%
October 202510.4%
September 202510.3%
August 202510.1%
July 202510.1%
June 202510.5%
May 202510.7%
April 202510.7%
March 202510.6%
February 202510.1%
January 20250.5%
December 20249.0%
November 20248.9%

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

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