AgenticVietnam Industrial Production YoY YTD
Output & Demand · Monthly series · VNIPYY
Latest, October 2026
12.0%
+0.33pp from September 2026
Forecast
Forecast for October 2027: 10.3%, with an 80% interval of 4.8% to 15.7%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 12.3% | 12.0% | 12.6% |
| December 2026 | 12.4% | 11.7% | 13.2% |
| January 2027 | 8.7% | -16.8% | 28.5% |
| February 2027 | 12.3% | 6.2% | 18.1% |
| March 2027 | 12.1% | 7.3% | 16.9% |
| April 2027 | 12.0% | 4.0% | 19.6% |
| May 2027 | 11.6% | 5.0% | 18.2% |
| June 2027 | 11.7% | 5.7% | 17.8% |
| July 2027 | 11.3% | 4.0% | 17.7% |
| August 2027 | 10.8% | 4.7% | 16.8% |
| September 2027 | 11.1% | 4.9% | 17.5% |
| October 2027 | 10.3% | 4.8% | 15.7% |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
- Error vs baseline
- 24% lowerError ratio 0.76; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 10 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-03 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
Industrial production to stabilize at +12.44% by Dec 2026, then ease to +10.33% by Oct 2027.
+10.57%→+12.01% (Jul–Oct 2026) to +12.44% (Dec 2026), driven by Samsung electronics exports and Foxconn contract-manufacturer ramp-ups.
+12.44% (Dec) to +8.66% (Jan 2027) exposes seasonal/base-effect volatility and sensitivity to US–China demand swings.
Stable +11.70%–+12.31% through mid-2027 reflects continued FDI in EV supply chains, textiles, and trade access via CPTPP/EVFTA.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 12.0% |
| September 2026 | 11.7% |
| August 2026 | 11.1% |
| July 2026 | 10.6% |
| June 2026 | 9.9% |
| May 2026 | 9.3% |
| April 2026 | 9.1% |
| March 2026 | 9.1% |
| February 2026 | 10.0% |
| January 2026 | 19.4% |
| December 2025 | 9.3% |
| November 2025 | 9.3% |
| October 2025 | 9.3% |
| September 2025 | 9.2% |
| August 2025 | 8.7% |
| July 2025 | 8.7% |
| June 2025 | 9.0% |
| May 2025 | 9.1% |
| April 2025 | 9.0% |
| March 2025 | 8.8% |
| February 2025 | 8.3% |
| January 2025 | -1.0% |
| December 2024 | 8.1% |
| November 2024 | 8.1% |
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
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