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Vietnam Retail Sales YoY YTD

Output & Demand · Monthly series · VNRSYY

Latest, October 2026

12.7%

+0.22pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartRetail Sales YoY YTD in the terminal

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 11.8%, with an 80% interval of 6.4% to 17.2%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202612.8%12.6%12.9%
December 202612.9%12.6%13.2%
January 202712.9%10.2%15.6%
February 202712.9%10.0%15.7%
March 202712.7%10.1%15.1%
April 202712.4%9.2%15.5%
May 202712.2%8.6%15.7%
June 202712.1%8.6%15.3%
July 202712.0%8.2%15.5%
August 202711.9%7.5%16.1%
September 202711.8%7.0%16.5%
October 202711.8%6.4%17.2%

Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models). Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)

Error vs baseline
11% lowerError ratio 0.89; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
6 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Commentary

Retail sales YoY YTD forecast slows to 11.79% by Oct 2027, down from a 12.91% peak in Dec 2026.

Trajectory: rose from 10.76% (May) to 12.68% (Oct) and peaks at 12.91% (Dec), driven by export electronics and strong FDI.

Trajectory: forecast then slides to 11.79% (Oct 2027), reflecting cooling external demand and slower manufacturing orders from US/China.

Trajectory: near-term support 12.77–12.91% (Nov–Dec) aided by tourism rebound and domestic credit growth after policy easing.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202612.7%
September 202612.5%
August 202612.2%
July 202611.9%
June 202611.4%
May 202610.8%
April 202610.5%
March 202610.0%
February 20268.9%
January 20269.3%
December 20259.5%
November 20259.5%
October 20259.8%
September 202510.0%
August 20259.9%
July 20259.8%
June 20259.9%
May 202510.2%
April 202510.2%
March 20259.9%
February 20259.4%
January 20259.5%
December 20248.6%
November 20248.6%

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

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