AgenticVietnam GDP Growth YoY
Output & Demand · Quarterly series · VNGDPYY
Latest, Q3 2026
9.9%
+1.14pp from Q2 2026
Forecast
Forecast for Q3 2027: 9.6%, with an 80% interval of 3.2% to 16.0%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 10.1% | 8.3% | 11.6% |
| Q1 2027 | 9.2% | 6.4% | 11.8% |
| Q2 2027 | 9.4% | 4.5% | 14.0% |
| Q3 2027 | 9.6% | 3.2% | 16.0% |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: TiRex + Toto ensemble (foundation models)
- Error vs baseline
- 40% lowerError ratio 0.60; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 5 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2018-12-01 to 2026-09-014 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 84%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-03 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Commentary
Vietnam GDP growth to rise to 10.10% YoY in 2026-12, up from 9.95% in 2026-09.
From 8.15% (2026-03) to forecast 10.10% (2026-12), exports surged (goods +30.4% YTD), boosting manufacturing output.
From 8.81% (2026-06) to 9.95% (2026-09), realized and registered FDI surged (realized +12.1%, registered +58%), lifting investment.
From 9.95% (2026-09) to forecast 10.10% (2026-12), AI-led electronics demand and Samsung's $1.5bn chip-testing investment drive exports.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.9% |
| Q2 2026 | 8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2% |
| Q4 2025 | 8.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | 8.2% |
| Q1 2025 | 6.9% |
| Q4 2024 | 7.5% |
| Q3 2024 | 7.4% |
| Q2 2024 | 7.1% |
| Q1 2024 | 5.9% |
| Q4 2023 | 6.7% |
| Q3 2023 | 5.5% |
| Q2 2023 | 4.2% |
| Q1 2023 | 3.4% |
| Q4 2022 | 5.9% |
| Q3 2022 | 13.7% |
| Q2 2022 | 7.8% |
| Q1 2022 | 5.0% |
| Q4 2021 | 5.2% |
| Q3 2021 | -6.0% |
| Q2 2021 | 6.7% |
| Q1 2021 | 4.7% |
| Q4 2020 | 4.5% |
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
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